Blackjack - Probability

According to my game comparison , blackjack players play about 70 hands per hour. I was curious what games you thought I should play? I always check out your site before I head to Las Vegas or Lake Tahoe just to remind me how to play smartly. Am I missing something? Here is the exact answer for various numbers of decks. It is highly unlikely that a dealer will risk cheating in a live casino.

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Great site by the way. I love gambling, and your site is one of the best I have seen on the web. Actually has real proven info. Thanks for your kind words. Unfortunately I do not have any such proof at hand. If I did set about proving it myself I would use a computer simulation. Can it actually be true that what I experience has a statistical base? It seems to me that it takes a lot longer to win X number of chips that to lose the same amount I only play blackjack.

For example, if I start with chips, it might take hours to double my money my goal , yet I can lost that number in what seems like almost no time at all. Can this really be true? Also, do you have a rule of thumb about when to leave the table when you are winning? What you have experienced is likely the result of some very bad losing streaks. It may also be the result of progressive betting or mistakes in strategy.

If I'm playing for fun then I leave the table when I'm not having fun any longer. Which is a better game for the player Spanish 21 or just regular blackjack in Atlantic City. Under Atlantic City rules blackjack has a house edge of 0. I find that to be unbelievable, besides I found that computer simulations are definitely not the same as live world action.

Also why don't casinos introduce video blackjack to thwart the card counters and get rid of dealers? I have said numerous times that there is no long-term way to beat a game with a house edge.

The results always approach the house edge in the long-term. It is not just computer simulations that back this up but the fundamental laws of probability. About video blackjack, that may be the way of the future. I have seen fully electronic tables with video display at the World Gaming Expo. I have also seen tables that with cameras can track every bet and every play each player makes. This enables the house to accurately comp players and alert them to card counters. These tables look and feel like any other blackjack table, so you card counters may be out of business if these tables are successful.

The Claridge is the best. As far as I know, they are the only Atlantic City casino to offer late surrender, which lowers the house edge from 0.

I know that you have the casino advantage for blackjack listed on your web site in the case that a person plays the basic strategy, but I was wondering what the casino advantage was on average against a typical beginner. Also, can you formulate what the best advantage a casino could have over the worst of players, assuming that they would never hit anything higher than a hard sixteen?

According to Extra Stuff by Peter Griffin the cost due to player mistakes of the average player is 1. This is above whatever the house edge is assuming proper basic strategy. It also varies by place, Atlantic City players are better than Las Vegas players, for example. Your other question about bad strategies was such a good one I added information to my blackjack section about it. See my remarks on bad strategies. First of all, I think your web site is great and want to thank you for all this great, solid information.

My question is this: I suppose this is to discourage larger stakes gamblers from playing at lower stakes tables but how do they calculate these limits?

I notice that they are different at different casinos. Also, on your chart of the house edge, it would be great to see a comparison of house edge for a blackjack player using Basic Strategy vs. Thanks again for the great work. Casinos generally try to keep the maximum bet about to times the minimum bet. The answer seems to be that casinos like to corral their big bettors into certain areas. Such high-limit areas tend to have the best staff and surveillance.

Limiting the ratio of maximum to minimum bet is also a defense against cheating and advantage play. The advantage of card counting depends on how good and aggressive the card counter is. Other than my introduction to card counting , I leave that topic to other gambling writers.

In the game of blackjack, can you tell me if people entering and leaving the game changes your odds of winning or losing? It seems to have an effect when I am playing. No, other players entering and leaving will have no long term effect on your odds. This may seem to be true but I suspect you are more likely to remember when entrances and departures hurt you than the times they helped you. In the long run the cards are the cards and all other factors cancel each other out.

I enjoy both Caribbean Stud and Blackjack. The element of risk for Stud is 2. Since the number of hands dealt per hour is many more for Blackjack versus Stud, does that mean that I will lose the same amount of my bankroll if the ratio of hands dealt per hour is 6.

My section on the house edge shows the blackjack house edge to be 0. The expected loss for 6. So given these two options you will lose less in Caribbean Stud Poker. The ratio of the house edge of Caribbean Stud Poker to blackjack is about My question is about table maximum bets in BJ.

Can I double down, or have I already reached the limit? Can I split them, turning one hand into two hands?

Yes, you could double or split in those situations. The maximum applies to the initial bet. My friend and I have a side bet going on. I said to him that I think that blackjack has the best odds in a casino, he said to me that he thinks poker has the best odds.

In a casino, what game do you have the best odds in winning, blackjack or poker? Although they are hard to compare I say blackjack is the better bet. It is easy to be a good blackjack player by learning the basic strategy. It is difficult to be a good poker player. Casino poker rooms are often full of very good players just waiting for an inexperienced player to fleece. However some people may be naturally gifted at poker, so take my answer with a grain of salt.

In Blackjack, what is the difference between early surrender and late surrender? In early surrender you can surrender before the dealer checks for blackjack. With late surrender you only have the option after the dealer checks for blackjack. Early surrender is much better because you can still save half your bet when the dealer does have blackjack. As far as I know no casino on the land or Internet currently offers early surrender.

Dear Wizard, Just a quick question, why does the house edge change for an insurance bet in blackjack depending on the number of decks used? Because we already know an ace has been removed for the shoe. That leaves the rest of the shoe slightly ten heavy. A greater the ratio of tens in the shoe the more likely the insurance bet is to win. The fewer the decks the greater this effect is. Most players tend to believe the actions of a casino are directed against them when the usual reason is simply the staff are following company procedures.

What game would you recommend to maximize the life of my bankroll and chances for a winning session? Considering both odds of winning and bankroll preservation I think the choice comes down to blackjack which favors winning and pai gow poker which favors bankroll preservation. I play occasionally with a group of players who love poker but occasionally want to play BJ to vary the evenings proceedings.

Most of them would be beginners in terms of strategy and probability awareness. What would be a fair set of rules you would recommend so that BJ becomes a fair game or as close as possible for both players and whoever takes the bank? It would depend on the specific skill factor of the players.

Without knowing that, but assuming the skill level is equal among players, I would have the bank option rotate from player to player. I realize that decisions per hour in games like blackjack and craps can depend heavily on factors like the number of other players at the table, the hand shuffle vs. Still, I was curious if you could give me a rough approximation of how many decisions per hour an individual can expect at a mostly-full craps table and a blackjack table with both a hand shuffle and machine shuffle.

This would help me estimate my expected loss per hour and weigh it against the comps I am being offered. Hands per Hour in Blackjack Players Hands per hour 1 2 3 4 84 5 70 6 60 7 Rolls per Hour in Craps Players Rolls per hour 1 3 5 7 9 11 Spins per Hour in Roulette Players Spins per hour 1 2 76 3 60 4 55 5 48 6 Assuming you lost exactly that amount per hand it would take , hands.

To make an educated guess I would say about , hands. At 60 hands per hour this would be hours, or two and a half years of full-time play. Great site keep up the excellent work. By clicking "Post Your Answer", you acknowledge that you have read our updated terms of service , privacy policy and cookie policy , and that your continued use of the website is subject to these policies. Home Questions Tags Users Unanswered. Blackjack Probability Ask Question. Nolohice 2 Are you assuming two players against the dealer?

The use of neither indicates that. Your calculation for the first player is correct. Michael Cotton 3 6. If the player goes blackjack or busts, the dealer doesn't get to draw, so there is some conditioning between the events that may need to be addressed. I had the same interpretation as Ross.

Very clever Michael Cotton, thank you. I can't help but wonder if there perhaps is a less hideous way of acquiring the same answer though. It might be a little simpler to deal with three separate probabilities: Our Blackjack quiz is designed to help you improve your knowledge and skill of the game.

The questions are based on the principles of Basic Blackjack Strategy. So make sure you are somewhat familiar with it before taking the quiz. You have to finish following quiz, to start this quiz: You have reached 0 of 0 points, 0. You have now completed the quiz. A good starting point would be our Blackjack Strategy Guide. This is one of the worst situation to be in.

Should you double down after splitting the 9s? You are allowed to split when your cards match each other and sometimes when the cards are equal in value.

As a general rule, you should always split Aces and 8s. By doing so you will always win more in the long run. Improve Your Blackjack Game Time limit: Quiz-summary 0 of 10 questions completed Questions:

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